Research
Toxic Winds: Mainstream Inertia, Voters’ Discontent, and Challenger Success (with Davide Cipullo and Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato)
Abstract: This paper investigates how voters react to persistent inaction of mainstream parties in government. We study the illegal burial, dumping, and burning of toxic industrial waste perpetrated by criminal organizations in Southern Italy since the late 1980s. We combine plausibly exogenous geographical variation in exposure to pollutants stemming from historical wind trajectories with the sudden release of information about the exact geo-location of contaminated sites. Difference-in-differences estimates show that, after the information shock, municipalities exposed to toxic winds experienced a persistent decline in turnout of 5.8 percentage points relative to non-exposed municipalities. Using individual-level survey data, we also find that exposure to pollutants reduces trust in politics, parties and the national parliament. Finally, we show that exposure to toxic winds increases the vote share of the challenger Five Star Movement (FSM) in national elections, who actively contrasted mainstream parties’ inaction on the issue.
Organized Crime, Hidden Pollution, and Long-Run Health Costs (with Davide Cipullo and Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato) [SSRN WP]
Abstract: We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in differences design. Using administrative cancer mortality data spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants stemming from the contaminated sites increases cancer mortality substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In later years, wind exposure implies roughly two additional cancer deaths per municipality-year relative to unexposed municipalities equally proximate to contaminated sites. Our findings reveal a previously unmeasured health externality of organized crime.