Gianmario Pelleschi

Abstract: This paper investigates how voters react to persistent inaction by mainstream parties in government. We study the illegal burial, dumping, and burning of toxic industrial waste perpetrated by criminal organizations in Southern Italy since the late 1980s. We combine plausibly exogenous geographical variation in pollution exposure from historical wind trajectories with the sudden release of georeferenced information on contaminated sites. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal no change in parliamentary attention and declines in both the share of current transfers from central and regional governments in total municipal revenues and EU cohesion funding. Downwind municipalities also experience a persistent decline in national-election turnout of roughly 2 percentage points. Individual-level microdata show that pollution exposure reduces perceived local quality of life and trust in national institutions. Finally, exposure to toxic winds increases the vote share of the challenger Five Star Movement (FSM) in national elections, which campaigned against mainstream parties’ inaction on the issue.

Abstract: We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in differences design. Using administrative cancer mortality data spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants stemming from the contaminated sites increases cancer mortality substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In later years, wind exposure implies roughly two additional cancer deaths per municipality-year relative to unexposed municipalities equally proximate to contaminated sites. Our findings reveal a previously unmeasured health externality of organized crime.